A Future Prediction?

If the speed of AI development is exponential, (a speed we are appalling at registering) - When will AGI and then ASI arrive?

We are well-advised not to bet against Elon Musk or Bitcoin, and now the other one is Openai (and AI in general)!. With Ilya Sustkever now firmly focused on ASI with his startup called SSI - Safe Super Intelligence, we are bound to see the transversing of the AGI terrain very quickly. Also never forget the many other players (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Anthropic, Open Source, xAI, etc.). Then never underestimate a bright spark in a garage somewhere!

The leap from o1 to o3 was only three months!, and remember the model was completed long before announcements many months before. Currently there is some assistance from earlier ai models to train the newer models, but human engineers and scientists do much of the grind. Once AGI is achieved, even in-house, we can expect AGI to play a big role in the development of ASI. If the rate is exponential now with human plus ai doing the work, then the speed of development with AGI building ASI will be staggeringly fast!

Here is my stab at that future, looking broadly at development and society in general from 1945:

https://youtu.be/knU86xbEvAw

I will do some more videos as topics prompt me to do so, Thanks

Enjoy!